相关实验视频
Updated: Jun 7, 2026

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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
21世纪全球生物多样性的情景
Henrique M Pereira1, Paul W Leadley, Vânia Proença
1Centro de Biologia Ambiental, Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa, 1749-016 Lisboa, Portugal. hpereira@fc.ul.pt
概括
未来的生物多样性损失预计将继续下去,但下降的程度有很大差异. 政策干预和固有的不确定性为全球生态系统创造了广泛的潜在结果.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
背景情况:
- 定量场景对于评估社会经济发展对生物多样性的影响越来越重要.
- 了解未来的生物多样性趋势需要分析陆地,淡水和海洋生态系统.
研究的目的:
- 在各种社会经济路径下分析全球生物多样性场景.
- 评估预计的生物多样性变化的范围,包括灭绝和息地丧失.
主要方法:
- 利用了全球陆地,淡水和海洋生物多样性的定量场景.
- 使用诸如灭绝,物种丰度变化,息地丧失和分布转移等措施评估影响.
- 将模型预测与观测数据进行比较.
主要成果:
- 情景一致预测,生物多样性在整个21世纪持续下降.
- 预计的生物多样性变化的范围比以前建议的要广泛.
- 对于减轻生物多样性丧失的政策干预,存在显著的机会.
结论:
- 生物多样性下降是一个持续的趋势,但其严重程度并未预先确定.
- 政策决策和预测不确定性显著影响未来的生物多样性结果.
- 干预策略可以大大改变生物多样性丧失的轨迹.
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