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从过去十年的气候变化中确定云的反
1Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA. adessler@tamu.edu
概括
由于云的反,地球的气候敏感性是不确定的. 这项研究发现,短期的云反可能是积极的,这表明它放大了变暖,而不是减少它.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 大气物理学 大气物理学
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
背景情况:
- 对地球气候敏感度的估计,这是未来变暖的关键指标,仍然不确定.
- 长期云反的不确定性是这些不同的气候敏感性估计的主要驱动因素.
- 云在通过辐射过程调节地球温度方面发挥着复杂的作用.
研究的目的:
- 为了量化短期云的规模.反.
- 为了确定短期云反是正面还是负面.
- 将观察到的云反与气候模型模拟进行比较.
主要方法:
- 对大气顶层 (TOA) 辐射预算数据的分析.
- 利用了2000年3月至2010年2月的卫星数据.
- 检查了云反的长波和短波辐射组成部分.
主要成果:
- 短期云反估计为0.54 ± 0.74 W/m2/K (2σ),表明可能的积极反.
- 发现短期云反的长波和短波组件都可能是积极的.
- 气候模型产生了类似的短期云反值.
- 在气候模型中,短期和长期云反之间没有发现相关性.
结论:
- 观察到的短期云反可能是积极的,放大了气候变化.
- 强烈负面的云反,足以取消积极的反,数据不支持.
- 研究结果表明,云层可能会加剧,而不是减轻全球变暖.
- 模型相关性中的差异突出了云反过程中未来研究的领域.
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