气候变化对欧洲生命树的后果
Wilfried Thuiller1, Sébastien Lavergne, Cristina Roquet
1Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine, UMR CNRS 5553, Université Joseph Fourier, BP 53, FR-38041 Grenoble Cedex 9, France. wilfried.thuiller@ujf-grenoble.fr
Nature
|February 18, 2011
概括
气候变化威胁着物种,可能导致显著的进化历史损失. 然而,灭绝并不集中在生命树的特定分支上,减轻了不成比例的进化损失.
科学领域:
- 生态学和进化生物学.
- 气候变化影响研究 气候变化影响研究
- 生物多样性研究的研究.
背景情况:
- 预计气候变化将增加全球物种的脆弱性.
- 如果灭绝不是随机的,生物多样性丧失可能会对进化历史产生不成比例的影响.
- 了解这些影响对于保护工作至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 估计气候变化对欧洲植物,鸟类和哺乳动物的基因多样性的影响.
- 评估物种对气候变化的脆弱性是否从基因组学上聚集在一起.
- 在气候变化场景下预测欧洲进化历史的未来.
主要方法:
- 利用了2020年,2050年和2080年的气候变化预测集.
- 使用高分辨率的家族遗传树来分析物种关系.
- 评估了欧洲植物,鸟类和哺乳动物群体的遗传多样性.
主要成果:
- 种类对气候变化的脆弱性在研究的种类中显示出一个弱的基因信号.
- 灭绝风险并没有不成比例地影响较少或更接近亲属的物种.
- 预计南欧地区的遗传多样性将大幅减少,而高度/高海拔地区的遗传多样性将大幅增加.
结论:
- 气候变化对生物多样性的影响可能不会导致由于随机灭绝模式而导致进化历史的不成比例的损失.
- 欧洲的生命之树面临着同质化,尽管有区域性收益,但总体上遗传多样性正在丧失.
- 保护战略应考虑生物多样性的地理转变和潜在的同质化影响.
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