自1980年以来的气候趋势和全球作物生产
David B Lobell1, Wolfram Schlenker, Justin Costa-Roberts
1Department of Environmental Earth System Science and Program on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA. dlobell@stanford.edu
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|May 10, 2011
概括
气候变化趋势对全球作物产量产生了重大影响. 从1980年到2008年,温度变化减少了玉米和小麦的生产,挑战了粮食安全的努力.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 了解气候变化对粮食生产的影响对于未来的粮食安全至关重要.
- 最近的温度趋势已经超过了全球大多数作物种植地区的历史变化.
- 评估气候趋势对作物产量的直接影响至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 量化观察到的气候趋势对主要商品作物的产量的影响.
- 评估气候趋势如何影响全球玉米,小麦,大豆和大米生产.
- 确定气候变化是否影响抵消其他因素带来的收益率增长.
主要方法:
- 利用历史天气数据和作物产量模型,将作物生产与天气模式联系起来.
- 分析了从1980年到2008年的全球作物种植地区的温度趋势.
- 将实际的作物生产与不包括气候趋势的反事实情景进行比较.
主要成果:
- 由于气候变化,全球玉米和小麦产量分别下降了3.8%和5.5%.
- 大豆和大米产量表现不一,收益和损失在很大程度上平衡.
- 观察到的气候趋势在一些国家足够显著,以抵消技术和二氧化碳施肥导致的产量增加.
结论:
- 气候变化趋势明显减少了全球主要作物如玉米和小麦的产量.
- 气候趋势对作物产量的影响因商品和地区而异.
- 观察到的气候趋势对维持和增加全球粮食供应构成了重大挑战.
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