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Assessing Intertidal Populations of the Invasive European Green Crab
Published on: September 16, 2020
民间冲突与全球气候变化有关
Solomon M Hsiang1, Kyle C Meng, Mark A Cane
1School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, New York, New York 10027, USA. shsiang@princeton.edu
Nature
|August 26, 2011
概括
全球气候变化,特别是厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 事件,显著增加了热带地区内战的风险. 这项研究将气候模式与现代社会稳定和冲突发生联系起来.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
背景情况:
- 以前的研究表明气候在历史社会崩中的作用,但缺乏现代冲突的直接证据.
- 厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 是一种影响年间气候变化的主导全球气候模式.
研究的目的:
- 量化测试厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 驱动全球内战模式的假设.
- 将关于ENSO对冲突影响的历史论点延伸到现代.
主要方法:
- 对1950年至2004年全球内战数据的分析.
- 检查厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 作为主导的跨年气候模式.
主要成果:
- 热带地区新内战的可能性在厄尔尼诺年相比拉尼娜年翻了一番.
- 自1950年以来,厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 事件可能占所有内战的21%.
结论:
- 这项研究提供了第一个直接证据,将行星规模的气候变化与全球内战联系起来.
- 现代社会中的社会稳定与全球气候模式,特别是ENSO密切相关.
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