多年预测每月平均大西洋南部翻转循环在26.5°N
Daniela Matei1, Johanna Baehr, Johann H Jungclaus
1Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany. Daniela.Matei@zmaw.de
概括
预测大西洋南部翻转循环 (AMOC) 现在可以提前四年. 海洋循环预测的这一突破为气候可预测性提供了新的见解.
科学领域:
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 地质物理学 地质物理学
背景情况:
- 在历史上,预测大西洋南部翻转循环 (AMOC) 的变化一直是具有挑战性的.
- 在全球气候调节中,AMOC起着至关重要的作用.
研究的目的:
- 为了证明每月平均AMOC强度在26.5°N的可预测性.
- 确定有助于AMOC可预测性的关键因素.
主要方法:
- 利用2008年1月至2011年1月之间初始化的整体预测.
- 分析盆地范围的上中大洋地质层运输和上大洋区域密度差异.
主要成果:
- 预测月平均AMOC强度的可预测性,可提前4年.
- 确定了上海地质运输作为预测技能的主要来源.
- 预测显示,在 26.5°N 的 AMOC 稳定至少到 2014 年,在 2010 年暂时减弱.
结论:
- 确立了AMOC作为气候可预测性的重要载体.
- 强调了上海动态在AMOC预测中的重要性.
- 开辟了长期气候预测和影响评估的新途径.
相关概念视频
Precipitation Gravimetry
Precipitation gravimetry is based on converting an analyte into a sparingly soluble precipitate, which is separated by filtration and weighed. An ideal precipitate should be pure, insoluble, of known composition, and easily filtered from the reaction mixture.
In determining nickel by gravimetric analysis, a precipitant of ethanolic dimethylglyoxime is added to a hot nickel salt solution. This is quickly followed by the dropwise addition of dilute ammonia solution until precipitation occurs. A...
In determining nickel by gravimetric analysis, a precipitant of ethanolic dimethylglyoxime is added to a hot nickel salt solution. This is quickly followed by the dropwise addition of dilute ammonia solution until precipitation occurs. A...
Magnetic Declination
Magnetic declination is the angle between true north, which aligns with the Earth's rotational axis, and magnetic north, which follows the direction of the Earth's magnetic field. This discrepancy exists because the magnetic poles do not coincide with the geographic poles. The value of magnetic declination depends on the observer's location on Earth and is subject to changes over time due to the dynamic nature of the Earth's magnetic field.The declination is called eastern when magnetic north...
Magnetostatic Boundary Conditions
An electric field suffers a discontinuity at a surface charge. Similarly, a magnetic field is discontinuous at a surface current. The perpendicular component of a magnetic field is continuous across the interface of two magnetic mediums. In contrast, its parallel component, perpendicular to the current, is discontinuous by the amount equal to the product of the vacuum permeability and the surface current. Like the scalar potential in electrostatics, the vector potential is also continuous...
Global Climate Change
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
Coriolis Force
An accelerating particle experiences a force equal to the mass multiplied by the acceleration in an inertial frame of reference. Consider a particle in a non-inertial frame of reference, such as a sliding ball on a rotating table. The acceleration of the ball in this rotating reference frame is different than in the intertial frame, which modifies its equation of motion. The fictitious forces acting additionally on a rotating frame of reference alter Newton's Second Law expression. Centripetal...
Precipitation and Co-precipitation
Precipitation and coprecipitation methods can be used to separate a mixture of ions in a solution. In qualitative inorganic analysis, ions that form sparingly soluble precipitates with the same reagent are separated based on the differences in solubility products. For example, consider the separation of Cu(II) and Fe(II) ions by precipitation as insoluble sulfides. First, copper(II) sulfide is precipitated by the addition of acidic H2S, where the dissociation of H2S is suppressed. Adding H2S...

