相关实验视频
老年人的预后指数:系统审查
Lindsey C Yourman1, Sei J Lee, Mara A Schonberg
1Division of Geriatrics, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94121, USA.
JAMA
|January 12, 2012
概括
这一系统性审查发现了几个预后指数,用于预测老年人死亡率. 然而,没有一个被独立验证或没有偏见,这表明在广泛临床使用之前需要进一步测试.
科学领域:
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 临床流行病学临床流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 指南建议使用预期寿命为老年人提供服务.
- 准确的预后指数对于临床决策和资源分配至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 系统地审查和评估60岁及以上成年人死亡率预后指数的质量和局限性.
- 确定可验证的指数,预测社区,养老院和医院环境中的绝对死亡风险.
主要方法:
- 系统地搜索MEDLINE,EMBASE,Cochrane和谷歌学者 (2011年11月开始).
- 纳入标准:在60岁以上的成年人中预测死亡风险 (6个月5年) 的验证指数.
- 排除标准:重症监护室,疾病特异性或住院死亡指数.
主要成果:
- 从21593个标题中确定了16个预后指数,预测了各种环境中的死亡率.
- 除了3个指数以外,所有指数都至少有一项可运输性测试措施.
- 没有一项研究没有潜在偏差;13个指数的C统计值≥0.70,但没有一个达到≥0.90. 只有2个指数得到了独立验证.
结论:
- 几个指数预测了不同环境中老年人的总死亡率.
- 未来的研究必须在不同人群中独立验证这些指数.
- 需要进一步的研究来评估它们改善临床结果的能力,然后才能推广泛采用.
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