同时缓解短期气候变化,改善人类健康和粮食安全
Drew Shindell1, Johan C I Kuylenstierna, Elisabetta Vignati
1NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025, USA. drew.t.shindell@nasa.gov
概括
实施14项排放控制措施可以显著减少全球变暖和空气污染. 这一策略可以避免数以百万计的过早死亡,提高作物产量,带来巨大的经济效益.
科学领域:
- 大气化学 大气化学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 热带层臭氧和黑碳 (BC) 是对空气质量退化和全球变暖的重要贡献者.
- 当前的排放控制技术和实践提供了减轻这些污染物的潜在途径.
研究的目的:
- 确定有效的排放控制措施,以减少热层臭氧和黑碳 (BC).
- 量化这些措施对全球变暖,空气质量和作物产量的影响.
主要方法:
- 考虑了大约400项排放控制措施.
- 确定了针对甲和BC排放的14项关键措施.
- 对全球平均变暖,过早死亡率和作物产量预计影响的分析.
主要成果:
- 一项由14项选定的措施组成的战略,到2050年将预计的全球平均变暖减少约0.5°C.
- 这一战略可以避免每年因室外空气污染造成的070万至470万例过早死亡.
- 由于臭氧减少,预计年度作物产量将增加3千万至1.35亿公.
结论:
- 减少甲排放带来了巨大的经济效益,其价值远远超过了减排成本.
- 与二氧化碳减少措施相比,所选的控制措施在较短的时间范围内提供气候效益.
- 将这些措施与二氧化碳减排一起实施,将大大降低超过2°C升温值的风险.
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