海洋盐度显示,1950年至2000年期间全球水循环的强烈加剧
Paul J Durack1, Susan E Wijffels, Richard J Matear
1Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Marine and Atmospheric Research, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia. pauldurack@llnl.gov
概括
海洋盐度揭示了水循环显著加剧,显示每摄氏度升温增加8%. 这个观察到的速度是气候模型预测的两倍,表明未来的加剧速度更快.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 水文学的水文学
背景情况:
- 基本热力学预测,随着全球变暖,降雨模式将向极移动.
- 从稀疏的降雨和蒸发的表面观测中检测水循环的长期变化仍然具有挑战性.
- 海洋盐度模式提供了水循环加剧的潜在指标.
研究的目的:
- 使用海洋盐度数据,识别和量化加剧水循环的指纹.
- 将观察到的水循环强化与气候模型的预测进行比较.
- 根据预计的变暖情景,评估全球水循环在未来的加剧.
主要方法:
- 对50年观察到的全球表面盐度变化的分析.
- 观察到的盐度变化与全球气候模型的输出相比较.
- 利用海洋盐度作为水文循环变化的代理.
主要成果:
- 观察到的全球表面盐度变化提供了强有力的证据,证明了水循环的加剧.
- 观察到的强化率为每摄氏度表面变暖的8±5%.
- 这一观察到的速度大约是当前一代气候模型预测的反应的两倍.
结论:
- 海洋盐度模式是加强全球水循环的可靠指标.
- 全球水循环正在以比气候模型预测的更快的速度加剧.
- 未来一个2°至3°更温暖的世界可能会经历16%至24%的全球水循环强化.
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