由于沿海电流的重定向,大南极冰架空洞的21世纪变暖
Hartmut H Hellmer1, Frank Kauker, Ralph Timmermann
1Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, D-27570 Bremerhaven, Germany. hartmut.hellmer@awi.de
Nature
|May 12, 2012
概括
未来的气候变化可能会重定向海洋流,增加南极冰层的融化. 这可能会大大增加Filchner-Ronne冰架下的融化,影响全球海平面.
科学领域:
- * * 冰川学 冰川学
- * 海洋学 海洋学
- * 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- *南极冰盖的质量损失发生在南洋边缘.
- * 温暖的环极水通过潜水槽入,导致基底冰架融化.
- * 海流和水位学极大地影响冰块质量损失的速度.
研究的目的:
- * 调查沿海电流重定向对Filchner-Ronne冰架的影响.
- * 在不断变化的气候条件下预测未来的基底融速率.
- * 评估预计的冰损失对全球海平面上升的贡献.
主要方法:
- * 使用结合的冰洋模型.
- * 强制使用来自HadCM3气候模型的大气输出模型.
- * 分析了冰架洞内的海流和水温的变化.
主要成果:
- * 沿海电流转向Filchner沟,预计将在21世纪末发生.
- * 热水越来越多地入南方冰架深处的空洞.
- * 基础融量从0.2m/年增加到近4m/年 (82至1600亿/年).
- * 主要驱动因素:由于海冰减少,韦德尔海的海洋表面应力增加.
结论:
- * 菲尔克纳-罗恩冰架的预计融化相当于南极洲当前表面质量平衡的80%.
- *量化基底质量损失对于预测南极冰的动态和海平面上升至关重要.
- *气候变化引起的海洋变化对冰盖的稳定性构成重大威胁.
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