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接近地球生物圈的状态转变.
Anthony D Barnosky1, Elizabeth A Hadly, Jordi Bascompte
1Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, USA. barnosky@berkeley.edu
Nature
|June 9, 2012
概括
由于人类活动,全球生态系统可能正在接近行星规模的临界点. 早期预警信号和解决人类影响对于生物预测和防止不可逆转转变至关重要.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 生态系统在关键值上表现出突然的,不可逆转的变化.
- 人类活动越来越多地迫使全球生物变化.
研究的目的:
- 审查全球生态系统中行星规模的关键转型的证据.
- 突出改善生物预测和预警系统的需要.
- 解决人类引起的环境变化的根本原因.
主要方法:
- 审查现有的关于生态值和临界点的科学文献.
- 对全球生态系统对人类影响的反应的证据分析.
- 讨论早期预警信号和反机制.
主要成果:
- 有证据表明,全球生态系统可能正在接近一个关键的过渡,类似于局部的临界点.
- 由于人类的累积压力,行星规模的临界点是合理的.
- 识别早期预警信号和理解反循环是至关重要的.
结论:
- 全球生态系统面临关键转型的潜力需要迫切关注.
- 改善生物预测需要检测全球和本地早期预警信号.
- 解决人类影响的根本原因对于减轻不可逆转的全球变化风险至关重要.
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