巴西亚马逊地区的灭绝债务和保护机会的窗口
Oliver R Wearn1, Daniel C Reuman, Robert M Ewers
1Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK.
概括
预测物种灭绝是一个挑战. 一种新方法显示,由于历史息地丧失,大多数巴西亚马逊脊椎动物的灭绝尚未发生,而保护机会仍然存在.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 生物多样性科学 生物多样性科学
背景情况:
- 准确预测未来的物种灭绝对于有效的保护资金至关重要.
- 评估灭绝的时间和规模,特别是关于息地丧失,仍然是保护生物学中的一个重大挑战.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用一种新的方法来预测物种随着时间的推移而灭绝.
- 在灭绝预测中考虑息地丧失的时间动态和规模.
- 评估巴西亚马逊地区当前和未来的灭绝债务.
主要方法:
- 开发一种新的物种灭绝预测模型.
- 将息地丧失的时间和规模纳入模型.
- 该模型应用于巴西亚马逊森林中依赖森林的脊椎动物物种.
主要成果:
- 到2008年,巴西亚马逊森林中依赖森林的脊椎动物的最小本地灭绝 (1%).
- 预计超过80%的灭绝是由于过去的息地丧失造成的,这代表了未来的灭绝债务.
- 根据现实的森林砍伐情景,预计到2050年将造成9种脊椎动物物种的区域性损失和16种承诺灭绝.
结论:
- 巴西亚马逊地区存在重大灭绝债务,大多数灭绝尚未表现出来.
- 通过有针对性的保护,有一个关键的窗口来减轻历史森林砍伐的影响.
- 在灭绝债务最高的地区优先保护可以减轻息地丧失的遗产.
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