在过去的50年中,陆地和海洋所观察到的净二氧化碳吸收增加
A P Ballantyne1, C B Alden, J B Miller
1Department of Geology, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado 80309, USA. apballantyne@gmail.com
Nature
|August 4, 2012
概括
过去50年,陆地和海洋的全球碳吸收量翻了一番,这与之前的气候模型预测相反. 这一发现挑战了关于碳汇和气候变化反循环的假设.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
- 碳循环研究 碳循环研究
背景情况:
- 由于全球碳循环对气候变化的反应,未来气候预测面临不确定性.
- 目前,海洋和陆地碳储库吸收了大约一半的人为二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放量.
- 模型预测未来碳吸收将会下降,这表明碳气候反会产生积极影响.
研究的目的:
- 分析过去50年全球二氧化碳 (CO2) 来源和沉降量的变化.
- 通过大气二氧化碳测量和排放清单,评估全球碳吸收的趋势.
- 挑战预测碳汇量下降的现有模型.
主要方法:
- 利用全球范围的大气二氧化碳测量.
- 纳入的二氧化碳排放库存及其不确定性.
- 进行质量平衡分析,以计算全球二氧化碳来源和沉积点的变化.
主要成果:
- 全球碳吸收量已大幅增加,每年约增加0.05亿碳.
- 全球碳吸收量在1960年至2010年间翻了一番,从每年2.4 ± 0.8到5.0 ± 0.9亿.
- 在全球范围内,陆地和海洋的碳汇都不太可能减少.
结论:
- 观察到的全球碳吸收的增加与碳汇下降的预测相矛盾.
- 自1959年以来排放的350亿碳中,约有55%被陆地和海洋吸收.
- 确定推动碳吸收增加的机制对于完善全球碳预算和预测未来气候相互作用至关重要.
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