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一个没有多云的未来:亚热带沉降在气候敏感性中的作用
John T Fasullo1, Kevin E Trenberth
1National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80305, USA. fasullo@ucar.edu
概括
通过观察相对湿度 (RH) 的变化及其对云的影响,可以限制气候敏感性. 无法捕捉这些远程连接的模型显示偏差,突出了改善气候预测的途径.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 大气物理学 大气物理学
- 气象学 天气学
背景情况:
- 相对湿度 (RH) 的变化显著影响云的特性和地球的白度.
- 电信连接连接热带和亚热带地区,推动季节性RH变化,与气候建模相关.
- 了解这些联系对于准确的气候敏感性评估至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 通过中热层RH变化提出气候敏感性的可观测约束.
- 根据模型模拟的关系,确定未来气候趋势的当前类比.
- 评估气候模型对表现观测到的大气动态的忠实性.
主要方法:
- 分析季节性RH变化及其与云引起的白度的共变性.
- 将观察到的RH-albedo关系与当前和未来变暖场景下的模型模拟进行比较.
- 评估与远程连接和亚热带干旱区强度相关的模型偏差.
主要成果:
- 热带和亚热带地区的季节性RH变化与云层变化中的白度密切相关.
- 这种共同可变性被模拟在模拟地球变暖的气候模型中.
- 模型灵敏度与亚热带干旱区和北极季风远程连接的表示密切相关.
结论:
- 低气候敏感度的气候模型往往无法准确地解决关键的远程连接.
- 解决观察到的RH-albedo变异的差异表明可以识别的模型偏差.
- 提高模拟这些观察到的变化的模型忠实性为增强未来气候预测提供了可行的途径.
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