预测和预防下一次大流行动物性 zoonosis 的
Stephen S Morse1, Jonna A K Mazet, Mark Woolhouse
1Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA.
Lancet (London, England)
|December 4, 2012
概括
大多数流行病起源于动物,并由于生态或行为变化而出现. 预测和预防未来的流行病需要新的风险评估方法和全球监测策略.
科学领域:
- 动物传染病的出现
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 一个健康 一个健康
背景情况:
- 像艾滋病毒/艾滋病和流感这样的流行病通常起源于动物,并由生态,行为或社会经济转变驱动.
- 尽管我们了解了流行病的出现,但在人类感染之前,还没有成功预测过任何流行病.
研究的目的:
- 审查有关新兴病原体,宿主起源和新兴驱动因素的当前知识.
- 讨论流行病控制方面的挑战,并探索新的预测和预防策略.
- 倡导从流行病应对转向预防.
主要方法:
- 对动物性传染病原体,宿主因素和出现驱动因素的文献综述.
- 分析流行病监测和控制当前的挑战.
- 探索用于早期检测和风险评估的新技术 (数学建模,诊断,信息学).
主要成果:
- 流行病是涉及病原体,动物宿主和环境/社会因素的复杂事件.
- 目前的监测和预测方法不足以在人类传播之前预测大流行.
- 先进的技术为识别新型微生物和评估风险提供了潜力.
结论:
- 一个积极的,先发制人的全球流行病战略是必要的.
- 加强针对关键动物-人类接口的监控至关重要.
- 开发新的风险评估工具以识别高风险微生物对于未来的预防至关重要.
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