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由于降雪量增加,南极洲未来的冰排放量增加
R Winkelmann1, A Levermann, M A Martin
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), 14473 Potsdam, Germany. ricarda.winkelmann@pik-potsdam.de
Nature
|December 14, 2012
概括
全球变暖将增加南极冰层排放量,因为降雪量增加,大大抵消冰块的增加. 这种动态的冰损失抵消了来自南极洲的潜在海平面贡献.
科学领域:
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
- 冰川学的冰川学
- 气候建模气候模型
背景情况:
- 人为气候变化推动了全球海平面上升.
- 预计强化南极降雪将部分抵消海平面上升.
- 关于南极冰层排放及其对海平面的影响仍然存在不确定性.
研究的目的:
- 为了研究南极降雪和冰排放之间的关系.
- 量化降雪增加对全球变暖下的动态冰排放的影响.
- 评估这些过程对南极洲对全球海平面上升的贡献的净影响.
主要方法:
- 利用一个冰盖模型,通过气候模拟强制到2500年.
- 纳入了一组模拟来解释冰物理不确定性.
- 分析了表面海拔变化对地面与浮冰的影响.
主要成果:
- 全球变暖带来的降雪增加,使南极冰的排放量增加了多达三倍.
- 增强的动态冰损失可以弥补30-65%的降雪导致的冰损失.
- 在高升温情景下,动态冰损失可以在2500年达到1.25米.
结论:
- 南极冰的排放与降雪的增加直接相关,这是海平面预测的关键因素.
- 由于降雪量增加而导致的动态冰损失显著抵消了潜在的冰质量增加.
- 南极洲对海平面上升的净贡献可能比之前预期的负面要小,因为这些合的过程.
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