187个国家的健康预期寿命,1990-2010年: 2010年全球疾病负担研究的系统分析
Joshua A Salomon1, Haidong Wang, Michael K Freeman
1Harvard School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA 02115, USA. jsalomon@hsph.harvard.edu
Lancet (London, England)
|December 19, 2012
概括
健康预期寿命 (HALE) 增长速度比预期寿命慢,大多数国家残疾年数增加. 这凸显了需要更好地管理非致命性疾病,以改善人口健康结果.
科学领域:
- 全球卫生指标和流行病学.
- 人口健康评估和趋势
- 发病率和死亡率分析分析
背景情况:
- 健康预期寿命 (Healthy Life Expectancy,HALE) 是衡量人口健康的关键指标,包括死亡率和非致命结果.
- 关于健康的比较和随着时间的推移而发生的变化,HALE对于政策决策至关重要.
- 了解HALE趋势可以为管理发病率并降低死亡率的策略提供信息.
研究的目的:
- 在全球范围内描述当前的健康预期寿命 (HALE).
- 分析过去二十年来HALE在187个国家的变化.
- 评估死亡率和残疾变化对HALE趋势的贡献.
主要方法:
- 利用了全球疾病负担研究 (GBD) 2010年的数据,用于1990年和2010年的HALE计算.
- 采用生命表方法,包括特定年龄的死亡率和1160个连续病例的流行率.
- 使用蒙特卡洛模拟和沙利文方法对HALE估计进行并发症调整.
主要成果:
- 2010年全球HALE出生年龄为男性58.3岁,女性61.8岁.
- 每增加一年的预期寿命,HALE增加了0.8年.
- 各国的HALE存在显著差异,在1990年至2010年期间观察到显著的增加和减少.
结论:
- 在全球范围内,HALE的差异很大,随着预期寿命的增加,残疾年数的增加也随之增加.
- 病率的扩大需要改善健康规划和医疗保健支出策略.
- 哈尔是监测2015年后人口健康趋势的有价值指标.
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