历史的终结是一种幻觉
Jordi Quoidbach1, Daniel T Gilbert, Timothy D Wilson
1National Fund for Scientific Research, Brussels, Belgium.
概括
人们高估了过去的个人变化,低估了未来的变化,相信他们已经达到了一个稳定的自我. 这种"历史终结的幻想"影响了关于未来偏好的决策.
科学领域:
- 心理学 心理学 心理学
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
背景情况:
- 个人身份和偏好往往被认为是随着时间的推移而稳定的.
- 了解个人变化的感知对于行为分析至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查个人如何感知他们的过去和未来的个人变化.
- 为了研究被称为"历史末日幻觉"的心理现象.
主要方法:
- 调查了超过19,000名年龄在18-68岁的人.
- 在过去十年中评估了自我报告的性格,价值观和偏好变化.
- 收集了未来十年预期变化的预测.
主要成果:
- 所有年龄组 (年轻人,中年人,老年人) 都报告了过去的重大变化.
- 所有年龄组预测未来变化最小.
- 个人认为现在是个人发展的稳定终点.
结论:
- "历史终结的错觉"使个人相信他们已经达到了最终的,稳定的自我.
- 这种看法具有实际意义,影响财务决策和未来规划.
- 为满足当前偏好的未来机会付出过高的代价是这种幻觉的结果.
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