印度洋控制的东非水气候的多年变化
Jessica E Tierney1, Jason E Smerdon, Kevin J Anchukaitis
1Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts 02543, USA. tierney@whoi.edu
Nature
|January 18, 2013
概括
东非降雨的变化主要是由印度洋驱动的.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 古气候学 古气候学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 近几十年来,东非降雨量呈现了多十年的下降.
- 之前的研究表明,印度洋和太平洋海面温度 (SST) 都会影响区域气候变化.
- 短暂的乐器记录限制了对驱动这种变化的物理机制的理解.
研究的目的:
- 调查东非多十年降雨变化的驱动因素.
- 区分印度洋和太平洋在区域气候中的作用.
- 了解将海洋温度与降雨模式联系在一起的物理机制.
主要方法:
- 对过去一千年相对湿度平衡的代理指标的分析.
- 使用来自合气候模型的长控制模拟.
- 检查海面温度 (SST) 和东非降雨量之间的关系.
主要成果:
- 在超过十年的时间尺度上,印度洋显著推动了东非降雨变化.
- 太平洋对东非降雨的影响很小.
- 较冷的印度洋东部SST与东非通过改变的步行者循环增加的降雨相关.
- 从1680年到1765年,发生了一次重要的暴雨事件,与过去一千年中最凉爽的印太暖池SST相吻合.
结论:
- 印度洋SSTs是影响东非降雨的主要因素多十年时间尺度.
- 当地步行者循环是将印度洋SST与区域降雨联系起来的关键机制.
- 代理和气候模型数据为印度洋在东非长期气候变化中的作用提供了强有力的证据.
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