热带碳对气候变化的敏感性受到二氧化碳变异性的限制
Peter M Cox1, David Pearson, Ben B Booth
1College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Science, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK. p.m.cox@exeter.ac.uk
Nature
|February 8, 2013
概括
热带雨林 热带雨林 热带雨林
科学领域:
- 气候科学是气候科学.
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
背景情况:
- 热带森林释放的碳可以加剧气候变化.
- 气候模型显示这种效应的不确定性.
- 模型预测由于二氧化碳而增加的碳储存,但由于变暖而减少的储存.
研究的目的:
- 减少热带森林碳储存的气候模型中的不确定性.
- 建立热带土地碳储存与大气二氧化碳增长率之间的关系.
- 限制热带土地碳对气候变化的敏感性.
主要方法:
- 对一组结合的气候-碳循环模型进行分析.
- 确定模型灵敏度之间出现的线性关系.
- 与大气二氧化碳和热带气温的当代观测的整合.
主要成果:
- 一个线性关系限制了热带土地碳对变暖的敏感性.
- 据估计,全球变暖将使热带地区每克尔文释放53±17千兆的碳.
- 这表明亚马逊在二氧化碳引起的气候变化下死亡的风险较低.
结论:
- 该研究对热带土地对气候变化的碳敏感性提供了更严格的约束.
- 如果二氧化碳受精效应显著,则表明亚马逊死亡的风险降低.
- 如果气候变暖是由除二氧化碳之外的其他因素驱动的,那么热带土地的碳损失的确定性更大.
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