最近在高北度地区的极端温度在过去600年里是前所未有的
Martin P Tingley1, Peter Huybers
1Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, 20 Oxford Street, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, USA. tingley@fas.harvard.edu
Nature
|April 13, 2013
概括
最近的高度极端温度是600年来前所未有的. 气候代理数据显示,最近的温暖夏季,比如2010年,超过了历史的变化,表明气候在变化.
科学领域:
- 古气候学 古气候学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 统计建模 统计建模
背景情况:
- 在高北度地区评估极端温度事件的频率需要长期的气候数据.
- 之前的温度重建表明,与前几个世纪相比,最近的温暖是异常的.
研究的目的:
- 评估过去600年来北极高度地区极端温度事件的频率和规模.
- 在长期气候变化背景下评估最近的变暖.
主要方法:
- 对多个气候代理记录 (仪器,树环,冰芯,湖泊沉积物) 的等级贝叶斯分析.
- 空间解析的过去温度历史的重建.
- 极端事件发生的概率评估.
主要成果:
- 最近在北方高度地区的极端温暖温度在过去600年中是前所未有的.
- 2005年,2007年,2010年和2011年的夏季在空间上平均比1400年以来的任何一年都温暖 (P > 0.95).
- 2010年夏天是俄罗斯西部 (P > 0.99) 和格陵兰西部和加拿大北极地区 (P > 0.90) 600年来最热的夏天.
结论:
- 最近极端温暖的夏季明显超过了历史的变化,这表明我们已经远离了静止的气候.
- 观察到的极端与平均温度的增加和恒定的时空可变性相一致.
- 长期气候代理数据对于了解极端天气事件的变化性质至关重要.
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