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未来的海平面上升来自格陵兰的主要出口冰川在气候变暖的气候中
Faezeh M Nick1, Andreas Vieli, Morten Langer Andersen
1Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université Libre de Bruxelles, B-1050 Brussels, Belgium. faezeh.nick@unis.no
Nature
|May 10, 2013
概括
格陵兰冰盖的冰川将通过增加冰的排放,促进海平面上升 (SLR). 一个新的模型在2200年前从四个主要冰川中投射出19-30毫米的SLR,由动态冰损失驱动.
科学领域:
- 冰川学的冰川学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 海平面上升研究研究
背景情况:
- 格陵兰冰盖由于表面融化和海洋排放而经历了加速的冰损失.
- 终结海洋的出口冰川动态对于预测未来海平面上升至关重要,但仍然不太了解.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用一种具有动态海洋终点的新型冰川流量模型.
- 在各种变暖情景下,量化格陵兰主要出口冰川对未来海平面上升的贡献.
主要方法:
- 利用一个完全动态的海洋终点冰川流动模型.
- 模拟了四个关键的海洋终结出口冰川的行为,这些冰川排水了格陵兰冰盖的22%.
- 从中等范围 (到2100年为2.8°C) 和极端 (到2100年为4.5°C) 的变暖场景应用大气和海洋强迫.
主要成果:
- 根据中等范围的变暖情景,从四个冰川到2200年预计海平面上升19-30毫米 (SLR).
- 确定动态冰损失是SLR贡献的主要驱动因素 (80%),与过度深度的偶尔退缩有关.
- 在初始增加后观察到相对稳定的动态损失,单个冰川对SLR的贡献在每年0.01到0.06毫米之间.
结论:
- 开发的模型为海洋终结出口冰川的动态行为提供了关键的见解.
- 这些冰川对未来海平面上升的贡献很大,但可能低于一些之前的估计.
- 升温情景的增加导致预计的冰损失和海平面上升的贡献大幅增加.
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