2012年德克萨斯州达拉斯的西尼罗河脑炎流行病,德克萨斯州
Wendy M Chung1, Christen M Buseman, Sibeso N Joyner
1Epidemiology Program, Dallas County Health and Human Services, Dallas, Texas, USA.
JAMA
|July 18, 2013
概括
达拉斯县的西尼罗病毒流行与温暖的冬季和可预测的蚊子活动有关. 使用载体指数及考虑天气模式的早期检测可以帮助预防工作.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 载体传播疾病 载体传播疾病
背景情况:
- 西尼罗河病毒 (WNV) 流行病再次出现,德克萨斯州达拉斯县在2012年经历了重大爆发.
- 了解驱动WNV疫情的因素对于有效的公共卫生干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析2012年达拉斯WNV流行病的流行病学,气象学和地理空间特征.
- 为未来的西尼罗河病毒预防策略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自达拉斯县 (2012) 的公共卫生监测数据.
- 分析了WNV病例数,蚊结果 (Culex quinquefasciatus载体指数),天气数据和急诊室综合征监测.
- 采用统计模型来评估WNV发病率,载体指数,天气和地理空间因素之间的关系.
主要成果:
- 2012年确定了173例西尼罗神经侵入性疾病 (WNND) 和19例死亡病例,比2006年更高的发病率.
- 在Cx quinquefasciatus向量指数准确预测了WNND发病前1-2周的时间.
- WNND病例聚集在人口密集地区,反映了前几年的地理空间模式.
- 温暖的冬天 (28°F以下的天数较少) 与较高的WNV流行率有关.
- 空中喷杀虫剂与呼吸道或皮肤皮疹紧急访问没有显著的关联.
结论:
- 达拉斯县WNV流行病在温暖的冬季之后很早出现.
- 越来越多年来,WNV的地理分布模式是一致的.
- 蚊子载体指数是WNV疫情的强有力的预测指标.
- 整合天气模式分析,历史数据和载体监测可以增强WNV预防.
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