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尽管区域格局发生了变化,但全球温度变化没有增加
Chris Huntingford1, Philip D Jones, Valerie N Livina
1Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford OX10 8BB, UK. chg@ceh.ac.uk
Nature
|July 26, 2013
概括
全球变暖可能不会增加整体气候变化. 虽然一些地区显示出更多的温度波动,但全球平均温度异常标准偏差保持稳定,与常见假设相矛盾.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 随着气候变化的变化和极端天气的增加,社会对气候变化的适应受到挑战.
- 过去的寒冷时期的温度变化比一些当前时期更高.
- 关于当前全球变暖是否增加了气候变化,目前仍在进行辩论.
研究的目的:
- 调查全球变暖是否正在增加全球气候变化.
- 分析温度波动的地理和时间趋势.
- 评估感知气候波动增加的有效性.
主要方法:
- 分析全球平均温度异常的随时间变化的标准偏差.
- 研究了近几十年来每年温度波动的地理变化.
- 标准化和绝对温度异常值的比较.
主要成果:
- 全球平均温度异常标准偏差一直稳定.
- 在温度波动中观察到显著的地理差异.
- 以前波动性较低的地区出现了增长,这有助于人们对波动性的看法.
- 使用绝对温度值的分析显示了最小的变化,与正常化异常不同.
结论:
- 人们对气候波动增加的看法可能源于区域变化,而不是全球变化.
- 全球变暖并不意味着总体气候变化会更大.
- 这些发现挑战了全球气温上升将导致普遍更高的气候变异性的假设.
相关概念视频
Global Climate Change
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
What is Climate?
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
Effect of Temperature Change on Reaction Rate
The Arrhenius equation,
Effects of Temperature on Free Energy
The spontaneity of a process depends upon the temperature of the system. Phase transitions, for example, will proceed spontaneously in one direction or the other depending upon the temperature of the substance in question. Likewise, some chemical reactions can also exhibit temperature-dependent spontaneities. To illustrate this concept, the equation relating free energy change to the enthalpy and entropy changes for the process is considered:
Temperature Dependence on Reaction Rate
The Collision Theory
Atoms, molecules, or ions must collide before they can react with each other. Atoms must be close together to form chemical bonds. This premise is the basis for a theory that explains many observations regarding chemical kinetics, including factors affecting reaction rates.
The collision theory is based on the postulates that (i) the reaction rate is proportional to the rate of reactant collisions, (ii) the reacting species collide in an orientation allowing contact between...
Atoms, molecules, or ions must collide before they can react with each other. Atoms must be close together to form chemical bonds. This premise is the basis for a theory that explains many observations regarding chemical kinetics, including factors affecting reaction rates.
The collision theory is based on the postulates that (i) the reaction rate is proportional to the rate of reactant collisions, (ii) the reacting species collide in an orientation allowing contact between...
Factors Affecting Body Temperature
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