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最近的全球变暖暂停与赤道太平洋表面冷却有关
1Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive MC 206, La Jolla, California 92093-0206, USA.
Nature
|September 3, 2013
概括
全球气温在本世纪暂停,原因是自然气候变化,特别是太平洋的十年冷却. 这一发现使气候模型与观测相协调,表明长期变暖趋势将继续.
科学领域:
- 气候科学是气候科学.
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 温室气体度的上升传统上与全球变暖有关.
- 在21世纪全球平均气温上升的观察间歇挑战了现有的气候模型.
- 对这种变暖间歇的量化机制对于准确的气候敏感性估计至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了使气候模拟与最近的中断期间观察到的全球温度相协调.
- 为了识别和量化自然气候变化的贡献,气候变暖暂停.
- 改善气候敏感性的观测估计.
主要方法:
- 在气候模型中,在热带太平洋中部至东部规定了观察到的海面温度 (SST).
- 结合SST数据的辐射强迫.
- 与1970-2012年全球年均温度相比,验证了模型性能.
主要成果:
- 考虑到热带太平洋SST冷却,调和模型模拟与观察到的全球温度 (r = 0.97).
- 该模型准确地重现了关键的间歇特征:加剧了步行者循环,区域冷却和干旱.
- 间歇被确定为自然气候变异性中的十年来拉尼娜式冷却事件.
结论:
- 21世纪的全球变暖暂停主要是由自然,十年级的海洋-大气相互作用驱动的.
- 热带太平洋海面温度变化是短期全球温度波动的关键因素.
- 尽管发生了中断事件,但由于温室气体排放的长期变暖趋势预计将持续下去.
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