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量化气候对人类冲突的影响
Solomon M Hsiang1, Marshall Burke, Edward Miguel
1Program in Science, Technology and Environmental Policy, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA. shsiang@berkeley.edu
概括
气候变化在很大程度上加剧了人类冲突. 更高的气温和极端降雨增加了暴力,全球变暖可能会扩大全球冲突率.
科学领域:
- 综合气候科学,社会科学和人文学科的跨学科研究.
背景情况:
- 越来越多的证据表明气候变化和人类冲突之间存在联系.
- 以前的研究往往缺乏全面的分析或定量严谨性.
研究的目的:
- 综合和分析有关气候和冲突的最严格的定量研究.
- 确定气候对人类冲突的因果影响的程度和性质.
主要方法:
- 60项高质量的定量研究的系统审查和元分析.
- 跨不同学科的分析,包括考古学,犯罪学,经济学,地理学,历史学,政治学和心理学.
- 检查各种空间和时间尺度和全球区域的发现.
主要成果:
- 证据的显著趋同证实了气候事件与人类冲突之间的因果关系.
- 气候变化向更高温度或极端降雨的标准偏差增加1个,与人际暴力增加4%和群体间冲突增加14%相关.
- 气候对冲突的影响很大,并且在地理上广泛.
结论:
- 气候变化明显增加了人类冲突的频率和强度.
- 预计到2050年全球变暖将达到2-4个标准偏差,这可能会导致冲突率大幅增加.
- 应对人为气候变化对于缓解未来的社会不稳定和暴力至关重要.
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