强有力的21世纪预测厄尔尼诺现象和相关降水变化
Scott Power1, François Delage, Christine Chung
1Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology, Docklands, Melbourne, Victoria, 3008, Australia.
Nature
|October 15, 2013
概括
未来的气候变化将改变厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 的影响. 预测显示,由于全球变暖,西太平洋的厄尔尼诺驱动干旱加剧,中部/东部赤道太平洋的降雨量增加.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 显著影响全球天气,农业和生态系统.
- 未来的气候变化可能会改变ENSO的特性和影响,但缺乏共识.
研究的目的:
- 在未来的气候场景下调查ENSO空间变化模式的预测变化.
- 确定ENSO影响中这些预测变化的主要驱动因素.
主要方法:
- 对最近两代气候模型的分析.
- 对二氧化碳和其他放射性活性气体使用了四种不同的场景.
- 在特定的实验中使用大气总循环模型.
主要成果:
- 确定了ENSO驱动的表面温度和降水模式的强有力的预测变化.
- 预计到21世纪中后期,厄尔尼诺现象将加剧西太平洋地区的干旱,并增加太平洋中部/东部赤道地区的降雨量.
- 预计降水变化主要是由对全球变暖的非线性反应驱动的,而不是ENSO振幅变化.
结论:
- 预计ENSO关键特征的变化比以前理解的要清楚.
- 全球变暖是塑造未来ENSO对降雨影响的主要因素.
- 恩索将继续成为每年气候变化的主要来源.
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