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气候速度表明物种范围转移的地理限制

Michael T Burrows¹, David S Schoeman², Anthony J Richardson³

¹Department of Ecology, Scottish Association for Marine Science, Scottish Marine Institute, Oban, Argyll, PA37 1QA, Scotland, UK.

|February 11, 2014

概括

气候变化正在改变物种多样性,对人类产生重大影响. 这项研究绘制了气候迁移的地图,揭示了由于环境条件的变化而导致物种可能陷入困境或消失的地区.

科学领域:

生态生态学生态生态学
气候科学气候科学
生物多样性研究生物多样性研究

背景情况:

人为气候变化正在全球范围内重组物种多样性模式.
了解这些转变及其对人类的后果至关重要,但不完整.
气候条件是各种规模物种分布变化的关键预测因素.

研究的目的:

用气候变化速度和利基市场轨迹预测物种分布的变化.
确定气候源和沉没区域及其对物种迁徙的影响.
为了绘制全球和区域物种丰富的变化,由于气候驱动的转变.

主要方法:

利用气候速度推导出气候的空间轨迹从1960-2009年,并预计到2100年.
分析了轨迹特性,以推断物种分布的变化.
确定了气候源区域 (不可访问的新气候) 和沉降区域 (消失的气候).

主要成果:

气候源区域是迁徙物种无法进入的,根据RCP 8.5.5.覆盖全球表面面积的16% (1960-2009) 和海洋的34%的海洋.
气候下沉区阻碍物种迁移,占海洋的1.0%和陆地的3.6%,集中在海岸和高地.
生成的地图显示了气候迁移变化的预期方向和速度,突出显示了潜在的生物多样性丧失热点.

结论:

气候变化速度和利基轨迹为预测物种分布变化提供了一个框架.
确定了源头和沉积区,揭示了气候移民的重大障碍和陷.
调查结果强调,迫切需要减缓气候变化,以保护全球生物多样性和生态系统服务.

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