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六个风险因素对实现25×25非传染性疾病死亡率降低目标的贡献:一个建模研究
Vasilis Kontis1, Colin D Mathers2, Jürgen Rehm3
1MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Lancet (London, England)
|May 7, 2014
概括
实现非传染性疾病 (NCD) 风险因素目标可以在2025年之前显著降低过早死亡率. 更雄心勃勃的烟草控制目标对于更大的影响至关重要,特别是在低收入国家.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 全球健康 全球健康
背景情况:
- 全球目标旨在到2025年将四种主要非传染性疾病 (NCD) 的过早死亡率降低25%.
- 对于关键的NCD风险因素,已有商定的目标,但它们对降低死亡率的影响需要评估.
研究的目的:
- 估计实现六个NCD风险因素目标对全球25×25死亡率减少目标的贡献.
- 评估风险因素目标实现对心血管疾病,慢性呼吸道疾病,癌症和糖尿病的过早死亡率的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用系统分析的风险因素和死亡率趋势的国家级数据.
- 员工对流行病学研究进行重新分析和元分析,以确定相对风险.
- 考虑了NCD多因果关系和风险因素变化对NCD影响的逐渐积累.
主要成果:
- 到2025年,实现风险因素目标可以使NCD过早死亡率在男性中降低22%,在女性中降低19%.
- 这将在2010年至2025年期间防止或延迟超过3700万例非传染性疾病死亡.
- 大多数好处,包括3100万死亡,预计将用于低收入和中等收入国家,减少全球不平等.
结论:
- 达成一致的风险因素目标将使过早的NCD死亡率接近25×25的目标,在低收入国家有显著的好处.
- 由于大量的死亡率益处和可行性,建议制定一个更雄心勃勃的烟草使用减少目标.
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