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未来北极降水量增加与当地蒸发和海冰撤退有关
1Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Utrechtseweg 297, 3731GA, De Bilt, The Netherlands.
Nature
|May 9, 2014
概括
北极降水量将显著增加,原因是北极变暖和海冰下降所导致的局部蒸发,而不仅仅是水分传输. 这种扩大的北极水文循环影响全球海平面和气候.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 北极研究 北极研究
背景情况:
- 预计到2100年,北极降水量将增加50%以上.
- 以前的归因主要集中在极端向上的水分传输上.
研究的目的:
- 调查预计北极降水增加的主要驱动因素.
- 量化局部蒸发与水分流入的作用.
- 降水变化与北极变暖和海冰减少有关.
主要方法:
- 利用最先进的全球气候模型.
- 分析了21世纪预计降水变化.
- 检查了蒸发和水分传输的季节性变化.
主要成果:
- 预计北极降水增加的主要原因是局部地表蒸发的加剧,特别是在冬季.
- 来自较低度的增强湿度流入起到较小的作用,在夏末/秋季达到顶峰.
- 蒸发的增加与冬季海冰的退缩有关,这表明北极水文循环的扩大.
- 北极平均降水灵敏度明显高 (4.5%/°C) 于全球平均值 (1.6-1.9%/K).
结论:
- 北极降水量增加与北极变暖和海冰流失密切相关.
- 扩大北极水文循环对河流排水,冰盖降雪和全球气候有重大影响.
- 潜在的影响包括北冰洋的新鲜化和大西洋南部翻转循环的改变.
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