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热带强迫加拿大东北部和格陵兰的近期快速北极变暖
Qinghua Ding1, John M Wallace2, David S Battisti2
1Department of Earth and Space Sciences and Quaternary Research Center, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195, USA.
Nature
|May 9, 2014
概括
北极变暖通常归咎于人类活动,但加拿大和格陵兰最近的变暖可能是由于自然气候变化而不是人类引起的气候变化.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 北极研究研究北极研究
背景情况:
- 北极的变暖和海冰的减少主要归因于人为气候变化.
- 由于海冰减少等反,北极扩大导致全球平均温度超过全球平均水平的变暖.
研究的目的:
- 调查自1979年以来在加拿大东北部和格陵兰岛观察到的北极显著变暖的驱动因素.
- 确定自然变化与人为强迫在近期北极气候变暖趋势中的作用.
主要方法:
- 自1979年以来每年平均地表和热层温度数据的分析.
- 温度变化与北大西洋振荡 (NAO) 的相关性.
- 使用规定的热带海面温度和人为强迫作用进行大气模型实验 (合模型对比项目第五阶段).
主要成果:
- 自1979年以来最显著的变暖发生在加拿大东北部和格陵兰.
- 这种变暖与北大西洋振荡的负面趋势密切相关.
- 模拟热带影响的大气模型重现了观察到的变暖,而仅使用人为强迫的模型却没有.
结论:
- 加拿大东北部和格陵兰北极地区近期升温的很大一部分与非强制性的自然变化有关.
- 观察到的循环变化和变暖与来自热带太平洋的罗斯比波列车活动有关,影响了NAO.
- 这表明,自然气候变化在区域北极变暖中起着重要作用,独立于人类的强迫作用.
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