海洋冰盖的崩可能在西南极洲的Thwaites冰川盆地正在进行中
Ian Joughin1, Benjamin E Smith1, Brooke Medley1
1Polar Science Center, Applied Physics Lab, University of Washington, 1013 NE 40th Street, Seattle, WA 98105-6698, USA.
概括
西南极冰盖的Thwaites冰川可能已经开始由于海洋融化的不稳定撤退. 虽然目前的海平面上升是温和的,但在几个世纪内可能会发生快速崩.
科学领域:
- 冰川学的冰川学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 西南极冰盖,特别是Thwaites冰川,位于深海盆地,使其本质上容易受到不稳定的影响.
- 之前的研究已经确定了Thwaites冰川是南极冰层损失的关键组成部分,也是未来海平面上升的潜在驱动因素.
研究的目的:
- 通过使用数值模型,调查Thwaites冰川对海洋引起的融化的敏感性.
- 为了确定冰川的不稳定撤退是否正在进行中.
主要方法:
- 开发和应用数值冰盖模型.
- 强迫模型使用与当前估计相比的海洋融化速率.
- 模拟冰川对不同水平的海洋引起的融化的反应.
主要成果:
- 该模型成功地复制了观察到的冰损失,当被估计的海洋融化驱动时.
- 在整个21世纪,来自Thwaites冰川的模拟海平面上升贡献不到0.25毫米/年,此后预计会增加.
- 模拟表明,早期崩已经开始,除了可能在最低融化场景下.
结论:
- 瑟维茨冰川对海洋融化表现出显著的敏感性,这表明未来不稳定的可能性.
- 根据融化速度,预计从现在开始的200年到900年之间,海平面每年上升>1毫米的快速崩开始.
- 持续的监测和精细的建模对于准确预测特威茨冰川潜在崩的时间线及其对全球海平面的影响至关重要.
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