热带气旋最大强度的位置的极向迁移
James P Kossin1, Kerry A Emanuel2, Gabriel A Vecchi3
1NOAA National Climatic Data Center, University of Wisconsin/CIMSS, 1225 West Dayton Street, Madison, Wisconsin 53706, USA.
Nature
|May 16, 2014
概括
热带气旋正在以每十年大约一个度的速度向极地迁移. 这一趋势与环境变化和热带地区的扩张有关.
科学领域:
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 气象学 天气学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 全球历史热带气旋数据显示时间不一致,限制了对趋势分析的信心.
- 由于数据的不确定性,评估热带气旋活动与环境变化之间的联系具有挑战性.
研究的目的:
- 为了识别热带气旋活动的趋势,尽管历史数据的局限性.
- 为了研究热带气旋强度的极地迁移.
主要方法:
- 专注于热带气旋强度的指标,对历史数据不确定性不那么敏感.
- 分析了过去30年的全球历史数据,以发现极地迁移趋势.
主要成果:
- 确定了热带气旋一生最大强度的平均度的统计学上显著的极向迁移.
- 在两个半球中都观察到朝极的趋势 (53公里/十年在北半球,62公里/十年在南半球).
- 检测到全球平均从热带地区迁移,每十年大约有一度的度,与热带扩张估计一致.
结论:
- 观察到的热带气旋向极移动是统计学上显著的,不太可能是数据工件.
- 这种迁移与环境因素的变化有关,例如垂直风切和潜在强度.
- 这一趋势可能与热带扩张的人为贡献有关.
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