由于温室气体变暖,印度洋极端双极事件的频率增加
Wenju Cai1, Agus Santoso2, Guojian Wang3
11] CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, Victoria, 3195 Australia [2] Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Qingdao Collaborative Innovation Center of Marine Science and Technology, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266003 China.
Nature
|June 13, 2014
概括
由于温室气体变暖,极端的印度洋双极 (IOD) 事件在本世纪的频率将增加三倍. 这种气候模式的转变将增加印度洋地区的极端天气事件.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 大气科学 大气科学
背景情况:
- 印度洋双极 (IOD) 是气候变化的主要驱动因素,影响着数百万.
- 积极的IOD事件特点是东部较冷,西部较温暖的海面温度,影响天气模式.
- 极端积极的IOD (pIOD) 事件在历史上导致严重的干旱和洪水.
研究的目的:
- 调查温室气体变暖对极端阳性IOD事件频率的影响.
- 在未来的气候场景下,了解推动pIOD事件变化的潜在机制.
主要方法:
- 在高温室气体排放情景下使用了一组气候模型 (RCP 8.5).
- 分析了海面温度的变化,风的模式和海洋流.
- 将预测的pIOD事件频率与20世纪的历史数据进行了比较.
主要成果:
- 预计21世纪极端pIOD事件频率将增加近三倍 (每6.3年发生一次事件,而20世纪为17.3年).
- 确定了平均状态的变化,涉及减弱的赤道西部风和向东的海洋流.
- 在印度洋西部比东方赤道地区观察到的更快的变暖促进了更频繁的风和电流逆转.
结论:
- 预计温室气体变暖将显著增加极端积极的IOD事件的频率.
- 这些变化是由印度洋平均气候状态的变化驱动的.
- 极端pIOD事件的频率增加表明受影响地区极端气候和天气事件的增加.
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