牛结核在英国的传播和控制的动态模型
Ellen Brooks-Pollock1, Gareth O Roberts2, Matt J Keeling3
11] Disease Dynamics Unit, Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ES, UK [2] WIDER Centre, Mathematics Institute and School of Life Sciences, University of Warwick, Gibbet Hill Road, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK.
英国牛的牛结核病 (TB) 是复杂的,有多种传播途径,包括动物的移动和环境因素. 需要密集的控制策略来有效管理这种持久性疾病.
科学领域:
- 兽医流行病学 兽医流行病学
- 疾病建模 疾病建模
- 传染病的动态传染病的动态
背景情况:
- 牛结核病 (TB) 对英国牛畜产业构成了重大的经济和政治挑战.
- 低诊断测试灵敏度使得了解结核病传播途径变得复杂.
- 关于为控制结核病而杀大的公共和政治辩论仍在继续.
研究的目的:
- 在英国开发牛结核病传播的动态空间模型.
- 分析农场内和农场间传播途径的作用.
- 评估各种疾病控制策略的有效性.
主要方法:
- 一个动态的随机空间模型,整合了农场内部和农场间的传输.
- 纳入随机感染,环境维护和测试协议.
- 利用来自牛追踪系统的牛转移数据来进行农场间的传播.
主要成果:
- 该模型准确地复制了牛结核病的观察到的年增长和空间传播.
- 分析显示,大多数新病例涉及多种传播途径:牛的移动,环境再感染和诊断测试不敏感性.
- 很少有经过测试的控制措施显示出逆转感染增长的潜力.
结论:
- 密集的控制策略,如全群屠杀或加强国家测试,是最有效的.
- 针对单一传输路线的控制措施不太可能具有高效.
- 了解多种传播途径对于有效的牛结核病管理至关重要.
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