在2014年伊基克地震之后,智利持续存在巨型地震的可能性
Gavin P Hayes1, Matthew W Herman2, William D Barnhart1
1National Earthquake Information Center, United States Geological Survey, Golden, Colorado 80401, USA.
Nature
|August 15, 2014
概括
2014年伊基克地震发生在地震间隙中,但并没有完全释放累积的压力. 未来的大规模地震预计将发生在智利北部潜伏区的邻近,未被破坏的部分.
科学领域:
- 地质物理学 地质物理学
- 地震学 地震学
- 构造学 构造学 构造学 构造学
背景情况:
- 地震间隙理论预测,近期地震性较低的断层地区会发生大地震.
- 智利北部的俯冲区被确定为地震间隙,预计1877年之后会发生一次大规模地震.
- 2014年4月1日,在这个隙中发生了8.2级地震.
研究的目的:
- 为了评估2014年3月至4月伊基克地震序列的地震构造学.
- 分析2014年事件的破裂程度和特征.
- 为了确定智利北部潜水带的剩余地震危险.
主要方法:
- 地震转移和时刻张量的分析.
- 有限故障建模和瞬间缺陷计算.
- 评估累积库伦压力转移.
主要成果:
- 2014年伊基克地震的断裂小于对地震间隙的预期.
- 智利北部的潜伏区的重要部分仍然未被破坏.
- 这一事件并没有完全缓解长期的地震危险.
结论:
- 2014年的地震并不是预期的大规模地震事件.
- 未来的大规模地震可能会发生在2014年破裂区以南和可能以北的地区.
- 在智利北部潜伏区未破裂的部分地区,地震危险仍然很高.
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