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平均和极端降雪对气候变化的对比反应
1Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, USA.
Nature
|August 29, 2014
概括
气候变暖将减少平均降雪量,但极端降雪事件可能会变得不那么剧烈. 这是因为大量的降雪发生在最佳温度附近,这种温度对气候变化不那么敏感.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 降雪是气候系统的关键组成部分,严重的降雪事件对经济和人类造成了重大影响.
- 气候模型预测,随着气候变暖,年平均降雪量将下降,但对极端降雪事件的影响仍然不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 调查气候变化对每日极端降雪强度的影响.
- 为了比较极端降雪事件的分数变化与平均降雪的变化.
主要方法:
- 在高温室气体排放场景下利用气候模型模拟.
- 分析了每日降雪极端 (99.99百分位数) 和平均降雪量的变化.
- 应用了一种基于物理的理论,与观察到的雨雪过渡相一致.
主要成果:
- 模拟显示,与北半球许多陆地地区的平均降雪量相比,每日降雪极端的微小变化较小.
- 对于特定条件 (低于零度的温度,低于1000米的海拔),极端降雪量减少了8%,平均降雪量减少了65%.
- 随着气候变暖而降低极端降雪的温度门比平均降雪 (-14°C) 高 (-9°C).
结论:
- 极端的降雪发生在最佳温度附近,因此它们对气候变暖的敏感性比平均降雪要小.
- 模拟变化表明,在极端降雪的情况下,检测区域气候变化信号可能存在困难.
- 这些发现对理解和管理与雪相关的表面条件和危险有影响.
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