与心房相关的栓塞性血管事件的年龄特定发病率,结果,成本和预计的未来负担:基于人口的研究
Gabriel S C Yiin1, Dominic P J Howard1, Nicola L M Paul1
1From the Stroke Prevention Research Unit, Nuffield Department of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
Circulation
|September 12, 2014
概括
在80岁以上的人群中,与心房动 (AF) 相关的中风在25年内翻了三倍,预计到2050年,这一数字将再次翻了三倍. 改善AF老年人的预防策略是关键的公共卫生优先事项.
科学领域:
- 心血管流行病学心血管流行病学
- 老年医学 老年医学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 在80岁及以上的个体中,心房动 (AF) 的患病率超过10%.
- 人口老龄化对AF相关的缺血事件的影响尚不清楚.
研究的目的:
- 调查AF相关的缺血性中风和全身栓塞的特定年龄发病率,结果和成本.
- 分析AF相关中风发病率的时间趋势,并与历史数据进行比较.
- 在老龄化人口中预测未来AF相关的栓塞事件的数量.
主要方法:
- 从2002年至2012年期间的牛津血管研究 (OXVASC) 中分析了AF相关的意外中风和全身血栓.
- 将发病率趋势与1981年至1986年的姊妹研究进行比较.
- 将数据推断到英国人口和未来数字的预测.
主要成果:
- 与AF相关的缺血性中风和全身血栓主要影响80岁及以上的个人 (59.9%并未指定血栓,但暗示高).
- 在80岁以上的AF相关的缺血性中风从1981-1986年到2002-2012年几乎翻了三倍 (英国每年从6,621到18,176).
- 年龄特定发病率的增加 (RR 1.52) 导致了这一增长,潜在的可预防事件每年给英国造成3.74亿英的损失.
结论:
- 尽管使用抗凝剂,但80岁以上的AF相关的缺血性中风在25年内翻了三倍.
- 预计到2050年,这些事件将再次增加三倍,其中83.5%发生在80岁以上的年龄组.
- 对老年人有AF的增强预防策略是一个关键的公共卫生要求.
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