碳循环时间与陆地生态系统气候的全球共变
Nuno Carvalhais1, Matthias Forkel2, Myroslava Khomik3
11] Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Hans Knöll Strasse 10, 07745 Jena, Germany [2] Departamento de Ciências e Engenharia do Ambiente, DCEA, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, FCT, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, 2829-516 Caparica, Portugal.
Nature
|September 26, 2014
概括
全球碳循环时间平均为23年,根据度而异. 生态系统的碳储存受到温度和降水的强烈影响,挑战了当前的气候模型.
科学领域:
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
背景情况:
- 地球碳循环对气候变化的反应是气候预测中的一个主要不确定性.
- 生态系统碳循环时间是气候-碳循环反的一个关键因素.
- 了解全球碳循环对于准确的气候建模至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为整个生态系统的碳循环时间提供一个全局的,空间显式的,基于观察的评估.
- 将基于观察的估计与来自最先进的气候/碳循环模型的模拟进行比较.
- 确定碳循环的关键驱动因素及其在模型中的表现.
主要方法:
- 植物和土壤有机碳库存和流量的新估计.
- 进行了对全球碳循环时间的空间显式,基于观察的评估.
- 分析了周转时间,温度和降水之间的关系.
主要成果:
- 全球平均碳循环时间为23年,具有显著的度变化 (赤道15年,75°N以北255年).
- 碳循环时间显示出对温度和降水的强烈依赖.
- 气候模型低估了全球碳循环时间的平均36%,并且未能捕捉到降雨的影响.
结论:
- 未来的气候碳循环反可能比目前建模的更敏感于水文循环变化.
- 地球系统模型需要改进,以准确地反映降雨在碳循环中的作用.
- 基于观测的数据揭示了气候变化预测的关键生态系统特性.
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