增加天然气使用对十年级气候变化的影响有限
Haewon McJeon1, Jae Edmonds1, Nico Bauer2
1Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, JGCRI, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, Maryland 20740, USA.
Nature
|October 16, 2014
概括
全球页岩气扩张,由液压压裂驱动,并没有显著减少温室气体排放或气候强迫. 丰富的天然气可能会改变能源系统,但不是缓解气候变化的解决方案.
科学领域:
- 能源系统分析 能源系统分析
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境经济学环境经济学
背景情况:
- 水力压裂使得北美广泛的页岩气生产成为可能.
- 这些技术的全球部署可能会导致非常规天然气资源的大幅增加.
- 丰富的天然气对气候的影响受到辩论,对其对二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放和整体温室气体影响的影响有不同的看法.
研究的目的:
- 评估非传统天然气供应增加对全球气候的影响.
- 评估丰富的天然气是否可以有效地减少温室气体排放和气候强迫.
- 了解天然气在未来能源-经济-气候系统中的作用.
主要方法:
- 使用了五种最先进的综合评估模型 (IAM).
- 模拟了一个市场驱动的全球非传统天然气供应增加的场景.
- 分析了到2050年天然气消耗,二氧化碳排放和气候强迫的预测变化.
主要成果:
- 预计到2050年,天然气消费量将增加多达170%.
- 观察到对二氧化碳排放的影响最小,变化范围为-2%至+11%.
- 大多数模型表明,由于增加了天然气使用,气候强迫的增加很小 (0.3%至7%).
结论:
- 全球非传统天然气市场驱动的增加并没有明显减少温室气体排放或气候强迫.
- 虽然丰富的天然气可以改变能源系统,但它不能取代气候变化缓解政策.
- 对能源-经济-气候系统的综合评估对于理解能源转型的全部影响至关重要.
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