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美国龙卷风发生变化的增加
Harold E Brooks1, Gregory W Carbin2, Patrick T Marsh2
1National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/National Severe Storms Laboratory, Norman, OK 73072, USA. harold.brooks@noaa.gov.
概括
气候变化影响美国龙卷风的发生. 虽然每年有大量龙卷风的数量保持不变,但自20世纪70年代以来,它们的变化率有所增加,改变了龙卷风季节的时间.
科学领域:
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 气象学 天气学
背景情况:
- 对气候变化对龙卷风发生的影响的公众和科学兴趣很高.
- 历史龙卷风报告变化使趋势分析复杂化.
- 了解龙卷风的变化对于气候变化影响评估至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查气候变化对美国龙卷风发生的影响.
- 分析龙卷风频率和变异性的趋势,并对报告变化进行核算.
- 为了确定龙卷风季节性的变化是否与气候变化有关.
主要方法:
- 分析自20世纪70年代以来美国历史龙卷风数据.
- 排除最弱的龙卷风 (EF0和EF1),专注于重大事件.
- 统计检查年度和月度龙卷风的发生和变化.
主要成果:
- 重要龙卷风的平均年数一直保持相对不变.
- 自20世纪70年代以来,龙卷风发生率的变化显著增加.
- 每年龙卷风日数的减少,加上多次龙卷风日数的增加,推动了这种变化.
结论:
- 气候变化可能会影响龙卷风事件的特征,而不仅仅是频率.
- 龙卷风变化的增加表明大气条件的变化有利于恶劣天气.
- 观察到龙卷风季节开始的变化,可能与更广泛的气候变化有关.
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