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气候变化. 气候变化. 由于全球变暖,美国雷击预计增加
David M Romps1, Jacob T Seeley2, David Vollaro3
1Department of Earth and Planetary Science, University of California, Berkeley, and Earth Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA. romps@berkeley.edu.
概括
全球变暖可能会增加闪电袭击. 研究人员发现闪电速率与对流可用潜在能量 (CAPE) 和降雨相关,预测每摄氏度升温增加12%.
科学领域:
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 气候科学是气候科学.
- 地质物理学 地质物理学
背景情况:
- 闪电显著影响大气化学和野火点火.
- 全球变暖对闪电频率的影响仍然不确定.
- 了解雷速变化对于气候变化影响评估至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证用于闪电速率的代理.
- 为了研究闪电,对流可用的潜在能量 (CAPE) 和降水之间的关系.
- 在全球变暖情景下预测未来的闪电活动.
主要方法:
- 提出了一个新的代理:闪电速率与CAPE乘以降水速率成正比.
- 通过使用对连续美国 (CONUS) 上闪电的观测数据验证了代理.
- 将验证的代理应用到11个气候模型中,以预测未来的闪电趋势.
主要成果:
- CAPE和降水产品解释了CONUS闪电数据中77%的差异.
- 风暴将CAPE和降水量转化为闪电能量,效率约为1%.
- 气候模型预测,全球变暖每摄氏度的CONUS闪电增加12 ± 5%.
结论:
- 拟议的代理有效地估计了闪电频率.
- 全球变暖预计将显著增加闪电活动.
- 未来闪电袭击的增加可能会加剧野火风险并影响大气过程.
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