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在过去的21000年里,厄尔尼诺的演变和强迫机制

Zhengyu Liu¹, Zhengyao Lu², Xinyu Wen²

¹1] Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Nelson Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706, USA [2] Laboratory of Climate, Ocean and Atmosphere Studies, School of Physics, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China.

|November 28, 2014

概括

厄尔尼诺南方振荡 (ENSO) 在过去的21,000年中发生了显著的变化,受到轨道变化和脱冰的影响. 了解ENSO过去的行为对于预测它对全球变暖的未来反应至关重要.

科学领域:

古气候学古气候学
气候动力学气候动力学
海洋与大气层的相互作用

背景情况:

厄尔尼诺南方振荡 (ENSO) 是地球每年气候变化的主要驱动因素.
恩索对全球变暖的敏感性不确定,需要对其过去的行为进行研究.
古气候记录表明,自从最后的冰川最大期以来,ENSO发生了显著的变化,在过去的6000年中可能会加剧.

研究的目的:

为了研究ENSO在过去21000年的短暂演变.
了解ENSO对外部气候强迫的敏感性,包括温室气体,轨道变化,融水和冰盖.
改善对未来ENSO应对气候变化的预测.

主要方法:

暂时合一般循环模型 (CGCM) 模拟的分析.
强制模拟温室气体的历史变化,轨道参数,融水排放和冰盖范围.
模型输出与古ENSO重建的比较.

主要成果:

模拟的轨道诱导ENSO强化在Holocene期间,由增强的海洋大气反驱动.
由于融水和大西洋南部翻转循环的变化,在早期脱冰过程中观察到ENSO特征的剧烈变化.
证明了脱冰CO2 (削弱ENSO) 和退缩冰盖 (加剧ENSO) 的对立影响.

结论:

恩索过去的演变是复杂的,是由相互影响的强迫和反形成的.
古气候数据和建模对于限制ENSO未来预测至关重要.
准确重建过去的ENSO行为是具有挑战性的,但对于理解气候变化至关重要.

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