对20世纪海平面上升的概率性再分析
Carling C Hay1,2, Eric Morrow1,2, Robert E Kopp2,3
1Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138, USA.
Nature
|January 29, 2015
概括
20世纪全球平均海平面 (GMSL) 的上升为每年1.2毫米,关闭了海平面预算. 1990年以后,GMSL的上升加速到每年3.0毫米,影响了未来的海平面上升预测.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 冰川学的冰川学
背景情况:
- 估计全球平均海平面上升 (GMSL) 对于了解气候变化影响至关重要.
- 之前使用潮计数据的研究估计,GMSL在20世纪每年上升1.6-1.9毫米.
- 在1990年之前估计的GMSL上与其归因的贡献之间存在差异.
研究的目的:
- *使用概率学技术重新评估20世纪GMSL上升.
- *通过整合潮计数据与物理模型来协调海平面预算.
- * 评估20世纪末和21世纪初GMSL上升的加速.
主要方法:
- *对潮计记录进行概率分析.
- * 整合潮计数据与基于物理和模型的海平面变化几何学.
- * 修订后的GMSL估计与冰川/冰盖质量损失和海洋热膨胀的贡献进行比较.
主要成果:
- *从1901年到1990年,GMSL每年以1.2±0.2毫米的速度上升.
- * 这一修订后的税率成功关闭了20世纪海平面预算.
- * 1993年至2010年间,GMSL的上升加速到每年3.0 ± 0.7毫米.
结论:
- * 20世纪GMSL上升估计已经向下修订.
- * 修订后的利率与气候模型贡献的观测数据相协调.
- *海平面上升的加速得到证实,可能比以前认为的要大,影响未来的预测.
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