在气候变化下,沿海上游的强化和空间均化
Daiwei Wang1, Tarik C Gouhier2, Bruce A Menge3
1Sustainability and Data Sciences Laboratory, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts 02115, USA.
Nature
|February 20, 2015
概括
由于气候变化,对渔业至关重要的沿海上升将加剧并改变高度的时间. 东边界上游系统 (EBUS) 的这些变化将影响海洋生物多样性.
科学领域:
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 海洋生态海洋生态学
背景情况:
- 沿海上升流将富含营养的深水带到水面,推动了海洋生产力和渔业.
- 了解气候变化对沿海上游的影响对于预测未来生态系统健康和渔业可持续性至关重要.
- 以前的研究表明,关于变暖如何影响沿海上升的强度和时间的共识很少.
研究的目的:
- 在未来气候变暖下,调查东边界上游系统 (EBUSs) 沿海上游的时间,强度和空间模式的预测变化.
- 评估这些变化在不同EBUS中的一致性,并确定潜在的区域差异.
主要方法:
- 利用一组气候模型来模拟未来的气候场景.
- 分析了主要EBUS风力驱动沿海上游潮的预测变化.
- 对加拿大EBUS,Benguela,Humboldt和加拿大EBUS的模型输出进行比较.
主要成果:
- 预计在21世纪末之前更早开始,更晚结束上升季节.
- 预计在高度上升强度和持续时间的增加,但不是在低度.
- 在加拿大EBUS中观察到卡纳里,本格拉和洪堡EBUS的一致模式,在加州EBUS中观察到显著的不确定性和缺乏强化.
结论:
- 未来气候变暖将显著改变大多数EBUS的沿海上升动态,特别是在高度地区.
- 预计上游强度和持续时间的度变化减少.
- 预计上游变化可能会导致海洋生物多样性分布的转变,加利福尼亚EBUS显示了独特的区域反应.
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