气候变化. 气候变化. 大西洋和太平洋的多十年振荡和北半球温度
Byron A Steinman1, Michael E Mann2, Sonya K Miller2
1Large Lakes Observatory and Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Minnesota Duluth, Duluth, MN, USA. bsteinma@d.umn.edu.
概括
全球变暖全球变暖.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
- 大气科学 大气科学
背景情况:
- 最近全球变暖放缓引发了关于气候模型可靠性的疑问.
- 关于减速是由于内部变化还是外部强迫而导致的,存在争论.
- 气候系统的内部变化可以影响全球温度趋势.
研究的目的:
- 为了调查最近全球变暖放缓的原因.
- 量化大西洋多年周期振荡 (AMO) 和太平洋多年周期振荡 (PMO) 在温度变化中的作用.
- 评估气候模型预测的可靠性.
主要方法:
- 应用了一种半经验方法,将气候观测和模型模拟结合起来.
- 估计基于大西洋和太平洋的内部多十年变化 (AMO和PMO).
- 分析了AMO和PMO对北半球平均温度的贡献.
主要成果:
- AMO和PMO解释了北半球温度的内部变异的很大一部分.
- 观察到AMO的温和正值峰值和PMO的负面趋势.
- AMO和PMO之间的竞争可能导致了最近的变暖放缓或"虚假暂停".
结论:
- 内部的多十年变化,特别是AMO和PMO,显著影响全球温度趋势.
- 最近的变暖放缓在很大程度上归因于自然气候变化.
- 这些发现强调了考虑气候预测中的内部变化的重要性.
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