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从2000年到2010年通过观察确定了二氧化碳的表面辐射强迫

D R Feldman¹, W D Collins², P J Gero³

¹Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Earth Sciences Division, 1 Cyclotron Road, MS 74R-316C, Berkeley, California 94720, USA.

|March 4, 2015

概括

观测数据证实,大气中二氧化碳 (CO2) 水平的上升直接增加了表面辐射强迫. 这种经验证据验证了温室效应预测,并量化了二氧化碳.

科学领域:

气候科学气候科学
大气物理学大气物理学
地球系统科学地球系统科学

背景情况:

温室气体对气候的影响通常通过辐射强迫来评估,比较工业化前和当今大气气体度.
理论模型预测,由于自1750年以来二氧化碳的增加,全球年平均辐射强迫力为1.82 ± 0.19 W m−2.
尽管进行了广泛的建模,但对大气二氧化碳增加辐射影响的直接观测证据仍然有限.

研究的目的:

提出基于观测的证据,证明清的天空中CO2表面的辐射强迫.
将这种强迫直接归因于2000年至2010年间大气二氧化碳度的增加.
为温室效应的理论预测提供经验验证.

主要方法:

使用的大气发射辐射干扰仪 (AERI) 频谱和辅助测量.
采用了经过彻底验证的辐射转移计算.
分析了来自两个不同的位置的数据:南方大平原和阿拉斯加的北坡.

主要成果:

在这两个地点检测到CO2表面辐射强迫的统计学上显著的趋势,每十年为0.2 W m−2.
这些趋势的量化不确定性为每十年±0.06 W m-2 (SGP) 和每十年±0.07 W m-2 (阿拉斯加).
观测到的季节性范围为0.10.2 W m-2,约占长波辐射下降趋势的10%.

结论:

这项研究提供了直接的观测证据,证明了增加大气CO2的辐射影响.
结果证实了对人类排放导致的大气温室效应的理论预测.
经验数据表明,受生物循环影响的二氧化碳水平上升如何影响表面能量平衡.

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