研究资金. 研究资金. 大名或大想法:同行评审小组是否选择最好的科学提案?
1Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA. dli@hbs.edu lagha@bu.edu.
概括
同行评审得分准确地预测了研究质量,表明更好的得分与更多的引用,出版物和专利有关. 即使考虑到调查人员和机构因素,这一发现仍然是正确的.
科学领域:
- 资助生物医学研究的资金.
- 资助审查流程 资助审查流程
- 研究影响评估研究影响评估
背景情况:
- 同行评审是科学资金分配的基石.
- 评估对研究结果的同行评审的预测有效性至关重要.
- 对于资助机构来说,了解影响研究成功的因素至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估同行评审小组在预测未来研究质量的有效性.
- 量化初始同行评审得分和随后的研究成果之间的关联.
- 为了确定这种关联是否在控制混变量之后仍然存在.
主要方法:
- 利用了一套新的数据集,追踪了超过13万个美国国家卫生研究院 (NIH) 研究项目 (R01) 赠款 (1980-2008).
- 分析了出版,引用和专利成果作为研究质量的衡量标准.
- 对于研究人员的出版历史,奖学金历史,机构,职业阶段和学位类型,采用统计控制.
主要成果:
- 较高的同行评审得分始终与卓越的研究成果有关.
- 一个标准偏差较低的分数预测引用率下降15%.
- 较低的分数还与出版物减少7%,高影响力出版物减少19%,专利减少14%相关.
结论:
- 美国国家卫生研究院 (NIH) 的同行评审得分表明,对未来的研究质量有很大的预测能力.
- 同行评审的预测有效性很强,即使控制了许多研究人员和机构因素.
- 这些发现支持在分配研究资金时继续依赖同行评审.
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