由于环境温度高低而导致的死亡风险:一项多国观察性研究
Antonio Gasparrini1, Yuming Guo2, Masahiro Hashizume3
1Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
Lancet (London, England)
|May 25, 2015
概括
寒冷的天气比热量更容易导致过早死亡. 温和的,非最佳的温度比极端天气事件对死亡负担的贡献更大,影响公共卫生规划.
科学领域:
- 环境流行病学环境流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 之前的研究估计了特定国家的与热或寒有关的死亡人数.
- 没有系统的评估涵盖了各种气候的整个温度范围.
研究的目的:
- 量化来自非最佳环境温度的总死亡负担.
- 评估热量,寒冷,中度和极端温度的相对贡献.
主要方法:
- 在384个地点 (1985-2012) 分析了74,225,200例死亡.
- 使用时间序列Poisson模型和分布式滞后非线性模型.
- 使用多变量元回归汇总结果,考虑国家特定因素.
主要成果:
- 非最佳温度占总死亡率的7.71%.
- 寒冷的温度导致的死亡人数明显多 (7.29%) 比热 (0.42%).
- 极端温度 (寒冷和热) 导致0.86%的死亡.
结论:
- 寒冷天气是温度相关死亡率的主要驱动因素.
- 温和的,非最佳的温度比极端温度带来更大的风险.
- 调查结果为公共卫生干预和气候变化影响评估提供了信息.
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