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海洋的循环. 观察大西洋南部翻转循环产生了十年不可避免的惊喜
1National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton Waterfront Campus, Southampton, UK. mas@noc.ac.uk.
概括
大西洋南部翻转循环 (AMOC) 的速度比气候模型预测的要慢得多. 最近长达十年的观测显示了这一关键的海洋热传输系统的显著变化和令人担忧的下降.
科学领域:
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 地球系统科学 地球系统科学
背景情况:
- 大西洋南部翻转循环 (AMOC) 在全球热传输和气候调节中发挥着至关重要的作用.
- 准确评估AMOC动态对于了解气候变化影响至关重要.
- 以前的海洋循环测量不足以验证气候模型的预测.
研究的目的:
- 评估气候模型对全球变暖下AMOC减速的预测.
- 为了提供一个详细的AMOC变化的观测图片在过去十年.
- 为了将观察到的AMOC变化与气候模型输出进行比较.
主要方法:
- 分析了过去十年收集的海洋循环数据.
- 量化AMOC变异性,包括年内范围,季节周期和年间变化.
- 观察到的AMOC趋势与气候模型预测的比较.
主要成果:
- 观察结果显示,AMOC的变化程度比以前理解的要高.
- 在过去十年中观察到的AMOC强度的下降超过了气候模型的预测.
- 在AMOC强度的年间变化显著影响海洋热量含量,超过模型变化.
结论:
- 长达十年的海洋观测提供了前所未有的关于AMOC变异性的细节.
- 观察到的AMOC下降和变异性超过气候模型预测,突出显示了对气候变化影响的潜在低估.
- 加强监测对于完善气候模型和预测未来气候场景至关重要.
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